This is Part ONE of an explainer series elaborating on the world of DOUBLE VICTORY before the Composite Testing Force is sent back in time to 1942; read Part TWO here.
The world of Double Victory does not start in 2042—when the Departure occurs, and the ships of the Composite Testing Force are sent back in time to 1942—it begins in 2020. Those twenty-two years are not great for the globe. In fact, they suck.
However, the pain and trials of the Roiling ‘20s and Burning ‘30s are at least matched with the global economic prosperity brought by the Fifth Industrial Revolution, which touches everything from production methods to material science to computing to bionics to medicine and more.
The net-net is straight up not a good time.
Double Victory is not trying to predict the future. It is merely an alternative history that leads to an alternative past. These years before the Departure serve to increase the size of the United States Armed Forces so that the Composite Testing Force described in a future post can exist with the weapons and technologies I want it to possess, especially the future forward-manufacturing capabilities which will become incredibly important for the progression of the post-Departure Second World War. This history also exists to build a cadre of experienced Sailors, Soldiers, Aeros, and Marines who can go through the Departure and have the confidence to stand up to the titans of the Second World War and hold their ground. The Fleet that disappears from Puget Sound is the best of the best. They have nothing to prove. They’ve already won their generation’s World War.
Point of Divergence — October 28, 2020
Senator Kamala Harris’s campaign schedule is thrown into chaos in the last days of the 2020 Presidential Election. Deciding to spend more time in North Carolina and Florida, her planned tour of Texas is shortened and moved forward. This new plan has the tour begin Wednesday the 28th, not Friday the 30th. One of the downsides is that Harris’s senior staff are forced to break off from the candidate and take the Biden-Harris bus to San Antonio International Airport to fly to North Carolina.
As they drive along I-35 in Hays County, the campaign bus is accosted by a convoy of Trump supporters. After about five miles of minor harassment, one of the vehicles, a Ford Super Duty, slams into the bus, sending it fishtailing. The bus flips and rolls on the highway, turning a minor collision into an incendiary pile-up. Approximately a dozen people are killed on the road, with double that injured. Most of the passengers on the Biden-Harris Bus are killed or grievously injured, including Senator Harris’s sister, Maya Harris. Video of the truck decked in Trump 2020 regalia slamming into the side of the Biden Bus becomes viral instantly. In response to a flagrant display of political violence—and a muted condemnation by President Trump—Biden surges in the polls. The final 538 polling average will be a Biden win by 10.8%.
Former Vice President Joe Biden and Senator Kamala Harris defeat President Donald Trump and Vice President Mike Pence 51.9% to 44.9% (2.5% more than OTL). Biden-Harris carry North Carolina but fall just short in Florida and Texas. Cal Cunningham narrowly defeats Thom Tillis by a few hundred votes. Susan Collins wins re-election after voting against Judge Barrett’s nomination. In the House of Representatives, the Democrats suffer a net loss of five seats, losing seven seats (IA-1, FL-27, FL-26, OK-5, MI-3, NY-11, and NM-2) and picking-up two (CA-25 and TX-24).
November 2020 – November 2022 proceeds similarly to OTL.
The Capitol is attacked on January 6th. Trump is impeached but not convicted. The filibuster reform fight fails; Joe Manchin backs out of a deal with Tim Kaine and Jon Tester at the last minute, leading to a 49-51 vote to attempt to pass the Freedom to Vote Act. A moderately larger Inflation Reduction Act is passed without the vote of Krysten Sinema, including the original housing provision. Gavin Newsom is not recalled in 2021. The majority opinion of Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization opinion is leaked, and the end of Roe leads to major Democratic over-performances in special elections and the November 2022 Midterms.
Another result of the I-35 Massacre is that Donald Trump himself has a noticeably more testy relationship with the GOP establishment and burns through his staff faster than OTL. He is dogged by an ever-increasing whirlpool of legal travails and the compounding pain of graft sucking away his campaign cash, causing him to rely on ever-shadier (and graft-prone) individuals to helm the ship. In relatively short order, his core campaign team consists of a constantly churning web of Nazi influencers, ex-pats avoiding death warrants in their homelands, at least one self-professed psychic with outstanding warrants in three states, a horde of lawyers who washed out of jobs in the Trump Administration for various reasons, and former South Korean President Park Geun-Hye.
The brewing discord explodes just a few weeks before the 2022 Midterm Elections. In an interview with Fox News, Mitch McConnell repeatedly mentions that Trump is not providing enough money for GOP candidates in the home stretch. Trump’s support for candidates had tapered off—some of his extra crooked inner circle had been siphoning money off to other causes (and to themselves) without Trump’s knowledge. Trump assumes that McConnell is setting him as a fall guy and cancels several rallies. A Trump staffer leaks to the media that the GOP is attempting to rig the election against the Former President, leading to a firestorm of press stories. Realizing the political danger, Trump attempts to rectify this mistake. However, the stumble gives ammo for the Democrats to wave the bloody shirt of election denial and launch a last-dash spend instead of triaging battleground races.
The Democrats do about three points better than OTL. This leads to net gains in the House (four seats)—mainly from California as New York still goes pear-shaped—and in the Senate (PA, WI, NC). It’s a full 1934 midterm.
Another point of note during this period is that in the winter of 2022, an on-leave Finnish Defense Force officer of the Utti Jaeger Regiment, one Nils Nilsen, rescues a platoon of American Marines in the “Lapland Hiking Accident” (not an accident, does not involve any hiking). This minor notoriety will see Nilsen move with his family to the United States and gain a commission in the US Marine Corps. He will eventually serve as the Commanding General of the 6th Marine All-Domain Force.
First Sino-American War of 2024
South China Sea War / West Philippine Sea War / First Sino
The Central Military Commission of the People’s Republic of China makes the fateful decision to roll back the Philippine presence in the Spratleys by starving the crew of the BRP Sierra Madre. The PRC’s economy continues to stumble, stoking concerns about the regime’s stability, especially for President Xi himself. With the capabilities of the Armed Forces of the Philippines continuing to grow, leadership fears this could be the last window of opportunity for a quick, “clean” victory. The belief is that they will be able to raise the red flag over the Sierra Madre without a shot fired.
In the meantime, the 118th Congress will be the most productive since the Great Society’s 89th Congress. The Senate is transformed, ending the filibuster, decreasing the threshold for unanimous consent, and speeding up cloture votes. It will pass the John Lewis Voting Rights Act, the PRO Act, the Industrial Finance Corporation Act, the Family Security Act, and the NEW DREAM Act—among a string of other long overdue (mostly bi-partisan) legislation. The District of Columbia is admitted to the Union as the Douglass Commonwealth alongside the State of Puerto Rico. However, Congressional in-fighting stops a full re-apportionment cycle. Instead, DC and Puerto Rico’s new Representatives are simply tacked on, increasing the House to 440 (one seat for DC and four for Puerto Rico).
The renewed majority is not without discord or drama. Senators Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema leave the Democratic Party, though both remain in the Democratic Caucus. Sinema leaves after the midterms, as in OTL, and Manchin leaves after the passage of the Climate and Jobs Act of 2023.
The Republican Primary is a rollercoaster as Trump’s fortunes falter (in the short term) after a disappointing midterm. Ron DeSantis emerges as the anti-Trump unity candidate and prepares for his run by juicing his conservative bonafides with executive and legislative action in Florida. Trump ruthlessly attacks his opponents, especially DeSantis, even before they announce. It appears as if DeSantis can actually challenge Trump until a campaign meltdown of a most spectacular fashion.
DeSantis’s fight with “Woke Disney” is even more aggressive than OTL. At one point, some of his surrogates imply that the Disney Corporation is assisting cartels in trafficking fentanyl into the United States and that Disney executives should be considered enemy combatants, like the cartels themselves. DeSantis strikes while the iron is hot and has Disney World shut down for a random drug inspection. They find no massive supply of Mickey Mouse fentanyl, contrary to the posts of his most Online staffers. This saga comes to a head at a Fox News town hall in Council Bluffs, Iowa.
12-year-old Becky Rodgers confronts the governor about why he shut down Disney World and ruined her family’s vacation when she just wanted to see Elsa. Caught off guard, the Governor gives a barely cogent response that seemingly implies that Becky’s parents are cartel members. She starts crying, and he starts shouting. His polling utterly collapses. Despite everything, even at his peak (which predates the Becky Rodgers Incident), DeSantis still trailed Trump by about seven points.
With the 2024 January Polar Vortex delayed by one week, Niki Haley “wins” an upset second place with nearly 30% of the vote. Ron DeSantis places third, finishing behind Vivek Ramaswamy. Haley secures several key endorsements between Iowa and New Hampshire—including former Vice President Mike Pence. However, Haley falls short in New Hampshire, with Trump winning by seven points. Nevada is also a rout, with “None of These Candidates” defeating Haley by 25 points.
Haley vows to stay in the race to the bitter end as South Carolina approaches—the make-or-break moment for her campaign.
Haley hosts a last-minute rally in Charleston on Election Day with key supporters and her family. A gunman—Harold Loudermilk, the 47-year-old owner of a used jet-ski dealership from Wisconsin—opens fire and kills five before being shot and subdued by the Secret Service. Karen Pence is declared dead on arrival at Charleston’s MUSC Health Center along with two Haley campaign staffers and a Secret Service agent. Haley’s husband, who had just returned from his deployment overseas, dies on the operating table. Her father, Ajit Singh Randhawa, dies two days later. Haley herself is wounded, a gunshot to the shoulder—as are both her children and her mother.
Trump wins the South Carolina primary by 11 points.
Loudermilk claims he was defending America from Haley’s imminent endorsement of Hillary Clinton for President—the former Secretary of State, of course, having surgically replaced Joe Biden’s brain with her own.
The Republican Primary is thrown into chaos. Some Republicans call for a pause to the campaign until Haley convalesces, but Trump refuses.
Trump crushes Haley on Super Tuesday, the day after his federal trial begins in DC. Soon after, he chooses South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem as his running mate. In her hospital bed, Niki Haley makes a decision that will reshape American politics.
She chooses to ratfuck Donald Trump.
Roughly a week after the shooting, No Labels announces they would be spending $25 million toward securing ballot access in all 50 states, including congressional elections—shortly after a huge, coordinated cash infusion from conservative donors who had been supporting Haley. It is a bolt from the blue but a signal that is immediately clear to every political player from Washington to the dark side of the Moon.
A week after this announcement and the ballot access operation in full swing, Haley and Mike Pence are nominated by No Labels at an impromptu ‘convention’ in Dallas. Haley declares a schism, promising a new conservative movement, attempting to cast herself as a latter-day Bull Moose. Pence’s speech is uncharacteristically bombastic but confused. He speaks with pupils the size of dinner plates and a tongue-lashing jeremiad of hellfire and brimstone. The move succeeds in shattering the pre-existing No Labels organization but does not schism the GOP—only a few notable electeds side with Haley and Pence. They attempt to rename No Labels "the “Constitutional Party” which causes considerable legal issues with the pre-existing Constitution Party.
Trump’s general election campaign begins almost immediately. He even attempts to force the Republican Convention to convene earlier so that he can formally become the GOP nominee. However, as the general election warms up in late spring—before the conventions, Trump starts to slip in the polls—with Biden holding a narrow lead in most—especially after Trump’s trial begins in Washington, DC.
The Former President narrowly avoids jail time after he threatens his former lawyers with “the death penalty, the super death penalty,” after they sue him seeking payment for their services. Trump’s money issues become even more pronounced as his legal troubles mount. Park Geun-Hye, still a Trump surrogate, is indicted for campaign finance and FARA violations—and having embezzled $10.9 million from the RNC, Trump Campaign, and various conservative super PACs. The RNC is forced to cover more and more of Trump’s legal expenses—the NSRC and NRCC are also forced into making queit contributions to Trump’s legal defense funds.
Trump flubs his pre-written statements opposing banning IFV and birth control on no less than three occasions. Usually, the statements are so confused that they mostly come across as taking credit for Dobbs. Trump's equally confused attempts to walk back his comments lead to a junior National Right to Life Committee staffer leaking an email between the President of the NRLC and Trump’s advisor Chris LaCivita, where LaCivita promises that a future Trump Administration will “get rid of all that stuff nationally” regarding mifepristone and “look into, seriously” jailing doctors and pharmacists who prescribe it. The staffer was attempting to prove that Donald Trump was not secretly pro-choice in an argument online (a pro-racism Club Penguin Discord server).
As the election approaches, polling shows that Biden is still on track for a solid but not overwhelming win, that is, until the end of September when Donald Trump is found guilty in New York, Georgia, and Washington, DC—in a single week. His sentencing hearings are at the end of October. Trump’s polling dives. Haley climbs from 3-5% of the vote to 15% percent in the immediate aftermath.
There is only a single Presidential debate—which proves to be more disastrous than the first debate in 2020. After his mic is cut the first time, Trump stops answering questions and uses his speaking time to berate Kristen Welker. Afterward, the Trump Campaign refuses further debates, claiming that Biden would use the opportunity to murder Trump. This is recanted, and instead, the Trump Campaign says they object to the inclusion of Haley, who had polled sufficiently to join. The Biden Campaign then refuses a debate with just Haley but does not cancel the VP debate. The triple dueling town halls will be some of the most watched TV in American history but will not change the race. The only major occurrence is Haley promising to sign a six-week abortion ban.
The 2024 Vice Presidential Debate will be the most watched debate in American history—exponentially growing as it continues. That is because of one thing—one man. Mike Pence. Pence’s eyes are fully dilated—at one point, he begins to briefly convulse. He has an extended conversation with a ghost—or potentially Christ, but it remains unclear. His voice switches from manic to composed mid-sentence. His rhetoric switches from that of a Very Serious Statesman to Waxing Poetically Preacher without warning. The moderator, Lester Holt, asks if Pence is all right three times. Pence’s only response would be, “Did the eagle make you ask that too?”
Pence’s bizarre behavior will draw massive media scrutiny—and it will be revealed two years later in a tell-all book by Pence’s chief campaign advisory that he was suffering from a “mild case of severe convulsive ergotism.” The Former Vice President was exposed to the hallucinogenic fungi from a loaf of improperly stored bread—the last loaf of bread that Karen Pence ever baked—that he had been nibbling on throughout the campaign despite warnings from friends, family, and six doctors.
Then, on 21 October, two Jiangdao-class corvettes of the Chinese Coast Guard opens fire on the Philippine Navy’s offshore patrol vessel BRP Andrés Bonifacio as it escorts a resupply convoy to Scarborough Shoal and the BRP Sierra Madre.
The Bonifacio is crippled, and the corvette Zhuzhou is sunk.
China claims Bonifacio opened fire first, and before the dust settles, they strike Subic Bay. Multirole fighters with iron bombs sink the damaged ex-USCG cutter and kill about seventy Philippine sailors and three American contractors. The Philippine Air Force, seeing the PLA shift bomber regiments to southern China, launches a daring last ride against Fiery Cross Reef, crippling the facilities there.
Peace dies in 36 hours.
The fighting spreads to include the Republic of China (in the South China Sea only) and Vietnam (mostly in a self-defense capacity against the PLA) shortly after the attack on Fiery Cross.
After the attack on Fiery Cross, the Central Military Commission orders a “punitive” strike against the Philippines—the 8th and 10th Bomber Divisions attack Manilla in the single largest heavy bomber raider since LINEBACKER II. The government and military centers of power of the Philippines are struck by a deluge of ALCMs, with mass collateral damage. In response, Biden addresses a Joint Sessions of Congress and calls for an Authorization of Military Force in the South China Sea. However, the US is already engaged in combat with the PLA because of the US-PH Mutual Defense Treaty. The narrow AUMF is approved by overwhelming margins in the Senate and a smaller but still decisive majority in the House. Its narrow scope reflects hopes of preventing a general war and containing the fighting to the South China Sea. The 2024 AUMF fractures the House Republican Conference. It even results in a brawl that leaves Kevin McCarthy unconscious (Minority Leader Steve Scalise whiffed a sucker punch on Chip Roy and hits the former Republican Leader).
Donald Trump makes the fateful decision to oppose the war in every form, claiming conspiracy and at one point implying that there isn’t actually fighting happening as it is all a scheme by “the Biden Crime Family to rig the election.”
Joe Biden hits the peak of his popularity on Election Day with 71% approval, higher than on his inauguration. Donald Trump’s vocal opposition to the war lands poorly with the general electorate. Niki Haley remains at about 10% in most polls. Then fate lands one last blow on Trump—he is on federal on E-Day, having violated the terms of his supervised release by saying, “Someone should 9/11 [Special Consul Jack Smith]. They should do 9/11 on him. I hope someone does," at a campaign rally in Madison Square Garden. Trump would later claim he actually said that what Smith had done was as bad as 9/11.
Trump’s isolationism in the face of First Sino causes the hawkish wing of the GOP to revolt. The Old Guard endorse Haley—led by former President and former Speaker Paul Ryan. No Labels/Constitutional, having fielded a modest bench of congressional candidates, targeting Republican members of Congress who opposed the AUMF. Mitt Romney endorses Joe Biden. Niki Haley gets her schism—but only just as the curtain falls.
On 5 November 2024, President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris are re-elected in a landslide, defeating Donald Trump and Kristi Noem by a whopping 17.7 points, the largest margin of victory since 1984 as a Republican Civil War spills into the ballot box. The popular vote margin is 53.7% Biden-Harris, 36.0% Trump-Noem, and 7.5% Haley-Pence.
Democrats triumph in Congress, netting forty-seven House seats (277-172) and seven Senate seats (TX, FL, MS, TN, IN, MO, UT, NE but losing WV—for 61-43).
In Mississippi—Brandon Presley defeats Roger Wicker, avenging his razor-thin, 819-vote loss in 2023 after the questionably legal destruction of 1451 uncured ballots. In Nebraska—Debb Fischer is defeated by independent Dan Osborn. In Utah—Mitt Romney’s endorsement boosts Salt Lake City Mayor Jenny Wilson enough to defeat Tim Ballard. In Missouri—Lucas Kunce defeats Josh Hawley by two hundred and seventeen votes. In Indiana—Ron Klain (nominated in mid-October after the death of Marc Carmichael, the prior Democratic nominee) defeats Victoria Spartz and No Labels candidate James Danforth Quayle with just 38.6%; Spartz became famous for appearing drunk on the campaign trail repeatedly and claiming that Joe Biden was going to “do a Gestapo.” In Tennessee—there are fireworks as Taylor Swift defeats Martha Blackburn after a rant by Donald Trump leads to an assassination against Swift and her fiancé Travis Kelce; Blackburn would infamously vote against the AUMF before appearing on Fox News to complain that Joe Biden was weak on China and that US Forces fighting in the Philippines lacked bravery.
The war, however, does not end on E-Day.
US Marines capture Fiery Cross Reef and Scarborough Shoal in a (briefly) contested landing within weeks. Fighting continues until a temporary ceasefire is reached on 25 December—however, armistice talks fail. The fighting resumes on 29 January. The US-led alliance decide to force the PLA from the Paracel Islands. However, despite a heavy missile bombardment, the PLA defenses on Wood Island are left intact. The landing force—4th Littoral Combat Team and 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit—is forced into a brutal fight for its life and is nearly run into the sea. They are narrowly evacuated by a joint US-PAVN amphibious force.
The Marines would likely have been destroyed if not for the intersection of an air attack by Navy F/A-18E/F Super Hornets and a suicide run by six (mostly damaged) Independence-class light frigates, which prevent a large PLAN SAG from interdicting the withdrawal. A fateful moment sees the arrival of LRASMs coincide with the sprint of the ex-LCS into gun range as they unleash their Adaptable Deck Launchers and remaining Naval Strike Missiles.
The FFRON takes heavy losses—three ships sunk and three crippled—but comes out victorious out of the largest surface action of the 21st Century. The USS Canberra (FF-30), under the command of field-promoted Commander Kimberly Scott, distinguishes itself as the flagship of FFRON 2. The FFRON’s commander, Captain James Ellington (Canberra’s former skipper), is killed in the action. Scott will gain her first Navy Cross for her actions during the Second Battle of the Paracel Islands.
Notably, First Lieutenant Valencia Dominguez is wounded on Woody Island, losing her left arm and leg. The second woman in Marine Recon, she flatlines twice while on the operating table aboard New Orleans. She is pulled to safety under withering fire by a platoon leader of the 4th Littoral Combat Team, a fresh-faced Second Lieutenant Lafayette DuSaint, who will go on to be Dominguez’s long-time superior.
The war is stalemated for the next few weeks until the fighting begins to wind down, both sides wishing for an end but unwilling to be seen as too eager. An armistice agreement is worked out and signed in Seoul at the Blue House. However, just twelve hours before the armistice enters into effect, the PLA launches a daring seizure of the Senkaku and Sakishima Islands with light forces. The PLA capture Irabu, Shimoji, Yonaguni, and Iriomote Islands but stop fighting after the armistice formally begins.
On the other side of the First Island Chain, as the Sakishima attack is underway, the United States Navy launches a daring assault on the Chinese Mainland. This is the third such attack during the war (the previous two were retaliatory strikes after attacks on Guam). USS Hyman G. Rickover and three other SSNs attack the PLAN’s major fleet base and HQ at Yulin Bay. Rickover’s skipper managed to position her ship and target their strike such that four Block VB Tomahawks are sent straight down the throat of the PLAN’s precious subterranean submarine base. Rickover proceeds to win a seven-to-one fight in the shallow waters around the base as the other SSNs fade into the dark. Okoye is awarded the Medal of Honor along with XO, COB, weapons officer, helmswoman, and sonarman. The rest of the crew is awarded the Navy Cross, the largest award in American history. The boat itself is given the first two reintroduced battle stars after the war, along with a pair of Presidential Unit Citations (one for the strike and one for the fight). Okoye will become the United States Navy’s first submarine ace and history’s submarine aces-of-aces, sinking a total of twenty-one (7 nuke and 14 conventional) submarines during her career.
Armed with an overwhelming legislative majority, President Joesph R. Biden remakes the American economy and defense industrial base, both during and after First Sino. There is the National Defense Act of 2024, the Naval Infrastructure Act of 2024, and the Defense Industrial Mobilization Act of 2025 during the war. Major Post-Bellum legislation includes the Defense Reform Act, the Pacific Shipbuilding Corporation Act, the National Security Act, and the National Defense Immigration Act of 2025. The Biden Administration also negotiates, and the Senate ratifies, the Bretton Woods Agreement on Insulated Critical Supply Chains (between the US, the EU, and certain major Non-NATO Allies, including Japan, India, Korea, Australia, New Zealand, and others). Guam and the Commonwealth of the Northern Marianas will be reunified and admitted to the Union as the State of the Marianas, the state’s enabling act will pass in January of 2025, and the 53rd state will join the Union on Independence Day 2025.
Much of this post-war mobilization is spearheaded by Bill LaPlante as the Chairman of the reconstituted and expanded National Security Resources Board. He will serve from 2025 to 2035. America’s mobilization of economic and military power is paired with mass investment in basic research on top of the already larger CHIPS Act, which produces numerous technological innovations that revolutionize the economy and military affairs. Defense spending increases to a baseline of ~6% of GDP and a further ~9% of GDP on research and development. Once the economic dislocations of the war begin to settle in 2026, the US will undergo an economic renaissance.
The invention of the graphene-silicon wafer chip is key to this renaissance, which uses a novel production method of graphene to increase the strength of a silicon wafer chip and allow relatively pain-free production of 600mm wafers. With breakthroughs in other material sciences and covetics—nanocomposite steel, high entropy alloys, and advanced non-polymer composites—it is nothing less than the onset of the Fifth Industrial Revolution.
Fourth Persian Gulf War of 2026
The First Iranian-Gulf Coast War / Dead Ayatollah’s War / Gulf War IV
In August of 2026, the Guardian Council of the Islamic Republic of Iran announces that the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has died. This has been common knowledge for the last eighteen months, but the regime had concealed the death to avoid what comes next. Massive protests wrack the country, demanding true popular government, higher wages, and an end to political repression. At the same time, there is a botched attempt by members of the Saudi Arabian Royal Guard Regiment loyal to Nawwaf bin Nayef Al Saud to overthrow King Mohammed. With the bodies of the rebel Royal Gayrds still littering the ground, the Saudis formally claim that the rebels were in the service of Tehran, working under the orders of the dead Ayatollah. At the same time, elements of the IRGC try to stage a false flag to force Iran to attack amidst the chaos, but the Saudis attack first.
The war is a clusterfuck, with air and missile battles across the Persian Gulf and cross-border raids into Iraq; the country had stayed neutral to avoid a civil war.
Commander Kimberly Scott starts the war as the skipper of USS Constellation (FFG-63), the ship having entered service ahead of schedule in late 2025. The ship is the lone US Navy combatant in the Strait of Hormuz for the first seventeen-and-a-half hours of the conflict because the Acting Commander of the Fifth Fleet ordered the two Arleigh Burke-class destroyers in port at Naval Support Activity Bahrain not to depart until they had been repainted. Constellation will earn a Presidential Unit Citation and seven battle stars. Scott herself will earn a second Navy Cross for the First Battle of Hormuz, a silver star for the Seventeenth Battle, and nearly a court martial for her refusal to follow orders from the Acting Commander of Fifth Fleet (his successor's confirmation was being held hostage by a talking filibuster). Scott barters with other friendly warships and auxiliaries for fuel, food, and ammunition, intent on making sure that there is always a ship on station in the strait.
Scott will earn her sobriquet “Kill Something” during the War after she loses her calm speaking to with ComNavCent on the radio. She shouts over an unencrypted channel, “Why don’t you, for the love of God, make yourself useful for once in your damned miserable life and go out and kill something!” CENTCOM will dismiss the Rear Admiral (Lower Half) after it is revealed he was stealing painkiller prescriptions “to keep his nerves steady,” in addition to his erratic behavior. Attempts to rehabilitate the RDML will lead to the famous (or infamous) “Revolt of the Commanders,” also known as the “Tailhook Putsch.”
Scott is field promoted to full captain and given command of a newly formed Escort Squadron Eight to protect civilian traffic.
The war also sees another future flag officer of the CTF gain their place amongst the legends of American history. Lieutenant Selina “Cat” Mitscher (the future CAG of USS Harriet Tubman) becomes the first US triple ace since Robin Olds after the “Miracle over the Zagros.” After losing her wingman in an ambush, the F/A-18E pilot single-handedly (literally, as she will lose her left arm and eye) defeats twelve Iranian flagged (but Russian piloted) Su-35Ms, including two gun kills and three maneuver kills (two she will admit were accidents not caused by her own hand, a Russian pilot crashed into his wingmen while trying to pounce on Mitscher)
The war ends after 107 days (August 5, 2026 to November 11, 2026). The war in 2026 is an American stomp, and it helps rally the 2026 Midterms into a wash. The Iranians are defeated, and the war ends with a status quo antebellum agreement between the Gulf Cooperation Council and the Islamic Republic of Iran. The office of Supreme Leader is disestablished, and the Guardian Council loses some powers. However, the IRGC remains a powerful political actor. The war will cause a lasting freeze between the United States and the Gulf States after the KSA repeated attacks shared US-Iraqi and US-Kurdish installations while attempting to provoke Shia-Iraqi paramilitaries. The immediate result of the chilling relations is the KSA moves into the orbit of the People’s Republic of China and the Russian Federation.
Later in 2027, over a decade of diplomacy, starting from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, will result in a unified security framework for the Western Pacific: the Osaka Treaty and Accord on Enhanced Cooperation, Mutual Defense, and Common Security.
Starting as the political agreement for the Pacific Shipbuilding Corporation, a pseudo-conglomeration of the Pacific Rim’s shipyards and shipbuilding concerns formed after First Sino. It is also known as the Pacific Charter or just the Osaka Treaty and creates OSATO, the Osaka Treaty Organization. OSATO is a sister organization to the North Atlantic Treaty and its Treaty Organization, but contextualized for the challenges of the Western Pacific. It is not as centralized and has separate tiers of membership. The original full members of the military component of the Osaka Treaty were the United States of America, the Republic of the Philippines, the Republic of Australia, the Socialist Republic of Vietnam, Canada, and Japan. Most Micronesian, Polynesian, and Melanesian states would join the alliance within a few years, with varying levels of integration.
The Treaty has a secondary tier—associated membership. These nations have agreed to joint defense standardization and political cooperation but are not subject to joint command and are only obligated to provide assistance—not force—in the event of an attack. This membership also exists within formalized bilateral agreements and is generally considered the “defensive club.” These members include the Republic of Korea, the Republic of India, the Republic of Indonesia, the Republic of Singapore, the French Republic, the United Kingdom, New Zealand, the Republic of Panama, and the Republic of Chile.
The Republic of China, Taiwan, is formally designated an “observer non-member” by the treaty and operates through the guise of a Taiwan Liaison Office.
Vice President Harris is given a leading role in the negotiations in Osaka. This, along with her visibility working on the homefront during both First Sino and Gulf IV, leads to a significant wind change in her favorability numbers. She secures the Democratic Party’s without a bloody primary and wins the Presidency in 2028.
Another event of note in the Second Biden Administration is the Anzio Incident of 2027, which almost started another war in the South China Sea. However, good timing and jamming prevent escalations from occurring until after the Central Military Commission declares the errant forces mutineer. The second largest within-visual-range naval action of the 21st Century will be covered up, chalked up to collisions and mines left over from First Sino.
In the wake of this very close call, two future flag officers of the Composite Testing Force have their careers destroyed—or that was assumed at the time. This happened to much cheer from some quarters as both Captains Kimberly Scott and Jeduthun MacGregor were considered “rank traitors” who sided with Tailhook Putsch. Scott, in particular, was a major figure of the nascent reformist clique, and her testimony to Congress about the “Revolt of Commanders” would help end the careers of no less than half a dozen flag officers and result in major shifts in USN personnel policy and improvement to personnel quality of life.
They are sent to dead in postings and have letters of reprimand added to their records. MacGregor, the captain of the refit Ticonderoga cruiser, USS Anzio (CG-68), is sent to command SBX off Adak for the next four straight years. Scott, then dual-hatted as the skipper of the USS Constellation (FFG-63) and commander of Advance Naval Support Activity Subic Bay, is reassigned as the defense attaché to Secretary of Energy Jennifer Granholm.
Office of Critical Procurement,
Coronado Crisis of 2029, &
Sakishima Missile Crisis of 2031
Vice President Kamala Harris and Secretary of Commerce Roy Cooper defeat Senator Tom Cotton and Governor Vivek Ramaswamy in the 2028 Presidential Election, with former Representative Tulsi Gabbard and Kari Lake putting a paltry showing as a dissident pro-Trump Patriot Party ticket.
Cotton is an unlikely candidate, the product of a train wreck primary. Donald Trump rejoins the GOP in 2026 and mounts his fourth and final major presidential bid from federal prison. Despite everything, he holds a narrow lead in a divided field. But days after Super Tuesday, he suffers a series of heart attacks, which leave him nearly dead, and he withdraws from the race. This leads to a chaotic sprint to the finish and a bitter, brokered convention. Cotton clinches party boss support with his resume and disposition, while his hyper-belligerent platform of small government and domestic drone strikes garners much support in the GOP’s right-wing base. He narrowly beats out the other contenders mostly because he is the least objectionable of the final six. Cotton selects fellow convention finalist Ohio Governor Vivek Ramaswamy as his running mate. They are the first ticket selected by a brokered convention since 1952.
Cotton/Vivek go down in flames.
Granholm remains Secretary of Energy through the Harris Administration and uses the department’s control of the federal research budget to indelibly shape the nation’s defense mobilization, aided by her new attaché Captain Kimberly Scott. Her abilities as a manager shine and the connections she makes at Energy will see her appointed as the head of the successor to the DOD’s Strategic Capabilities Office—the Office of Critical Procurement under the National Security Resources Board.
As the chief procurement officer of the US’s peacetime defense mobilization agency, Scott becomes something of a second Rickover, but with a reach that extends into every aspect of the Department of Defense. She and the NSRB’s long-time head, Bill LePlante, will force the Department to undergo massive personnel reforms to increase recruitment and retention. Scott and her associates wage war against OPNAV and what they deride as the “Everything is Fine Admiralty.”
They will win more fights than they lose. A particular conflict over the introduction of a new standard ship paint will lead to the formalization of factionalism within the USN with the reformist “Slate Navy,” creating the Fleet Institute, and the status-quo-ist “Corporate Navy,” forming the Professional Naval Officers’ Society.
OCP helps shape/force the Navy’s Fleet Architecture 2040, the Marine Corps’s Force Design 2040, the Army’s Structure 2050, and the Aerospace Force’s Sky Warden. The most visible of the Navy’s procurement programs are dubbed the “Slate Navy Babies,” named after dark signature-reducing, long-lasting corrosion-resisting paint. These new ships are armed with electrothermal chemical guns with railgun performance, are fitted with a combination Growth+Perpherial VLS arrangement to maximize their firepower, are built with new high-entropy alloys and advanced composites, and are designed to be exceptionally easy to repair and build with printer-fabricators and other new advanced industrial processes. The Slate Navy Babies will also see the first nuclear-powered surface combatants launched since the Kirov-class battlecruiser, using new plasma molten salt reactors.
The OCP paves the way, funding the maturation of key defense technologies and scouting thousands of talented individuals. They help develop everything from plasma MSRs to the first Piezoelectrothermal-chemical primers. OCP de-facto drafts both the Naval Act of 2030—funding the Slate Navy Babies—and the Aerospace Act of 2031—reunifying the Space and Air Forces into the Aerospace Force.
Another key moment during the Harris Administration is the Coronado Crisis of 2029 and the resultant end of the Naval Special Warfare Command, the expansion of the Marine Special Operations Command, and the creation of the Fleet Special Warfare Command. The crisis is a tragedy of errors stemming from West Coast SEAL Teams running drugs and guns for a hypermilitarized successor to CJNG; made even worse is that several ex-SEALs work directly for the cartel. Dozens are left dead on Coronado, and as the gun smoke fades, NAVSPECWAR will be unmade.
Coronado leads to the expansion of the Marine Raider Regiment into an airborne elite amphibious light infantry regiment to complement the 75th Ranger Regiment, the creation of Marine Special Operations Groups One and Four, and the rebirth of the Underwater Demolition Teams. Fleet Special Warfare Command will be among the first of the fully integrated USN-USMC infrastructure/commands. Much of this work will be headed by Captain Scott’s husband, an SWCC, Jember “Jem” Dissmie.
The Harris Administration will also have a moment of some controversy when, in the very first days of January 2031—just before a new Republican Congress was sworn in—the Virgin Islands Admission Act is passed by a margin of two votes in the House and a Vice Presidential tie-breaker in the Senate. The new Republican Congress will try to counter with an American Samoa Admission Act, hoping the island would counter-balance America’s second Caribbean state. However, American Samoa votes for a Compact of Free Association and will be granted independence.
Perhaps the single most defining event of the Harris Administration is the Sakishima Missile Crisis. The PLA had previously been very cautious about deploying additional military resources to the occupied Japanese islands. However, President Xi takes a slowing of defense spending increase (just over keeping up with inflation) to boost funding for the American Health Service (a federally managed network of public hospitals set up in 2025) as a signal that America will no longer defend Japan—totally misreading the situation.
The PLA deploys two batteries of short-range CJ-200 Satyrs to the islands. Satyr is a scramjet-powered, very-low-observability sea-skimming high-hypersonic anti-ship cruise missile. The weapon is limited in range because reaching its top speed leads to significant issues with thermal management, structural integrity, and fuel capacity. Even with the PLARF’s comparative advantage in ablative-stealth material science, they will melt and disintegrate if they remain at full speed for more than a mere few seconds.
The fact that Satyr can be tipped with nuclear warheads and that these hardened, interconnected, subterranean sites are within range of Okinawa and Taipei—sets off a panic in Osaka, Tokyo, Taipei, and Washington.
The US moves toward a quarantine (blockade) of the islands and readies a military operation to clear the PLA and neutralize the launchers after the NSA confirms that the PLA will deploy warheads to Iriomote-Jima. The PLA had not planned to deploy any warheads but would feel pressured to do so to maintain deterrence. The world inches towards nuclear war. The Sakishima Missile Crisis will be the closest the world has gotten to a Cold War-style strategic exchange since the Cuban Missile Crisis.
The crisis ends with an under-the-table agreement. Harris calls off the blockade. The CMC announces they will not deploy nuclear weapons to the islands but that they will maintain a reduced Satyr presence on the islands. They promise not to deploy any nuclear warheads to Sakishima so long as Japan does not procure nuclear weapons. However, PLARF will retain the warheads in a munitions complex located on the mainland coast with a dedicated airlift unit to deploy warheads rapidly, if necessary.
In reaction to the crisis, Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea all independently signal they feel obligated to respond to the nuclear escalation on their own terms (read: develop their own weapons). The Harris Administration makes a series of secretive “Devil’s Deals” with three states to prevent the proliferation of further independent nuclear arsenals.
The US deploys a small number of nuclear weapons to Misawa AB under a de facto nuclear sharing agreement with Japan (this will not be revealed until 2065 and will bring down the incumbent Japanese ministry). The US agrees to a deal with South Korea to provide nuclear weapons under a formal nuclear sharing agreement; it will be the first nuclear sharing power to be based on the AGM-190A SRAM-III nuclear-tipped missiles (derived from the AGM-188 SiAW).
Finally, the US provides Taiwan with “Dambuster” ballistic missiles. It is an operation that, in real terms, is a graver escalation than the deployment of Satyr, but the PRC is unable to detect the missiles until they are already operational. They do not publicize the crisis for fear of looking weak at home. The weapons are based on the US’s MGM-200D Pershing III (the MRBM derivative of the MGM-200 Long Range Hypersonic Weapon) and are armed with a “bunker defeat penetrator re-entry vehicle.” This allows Taipei to credibly threaten Beijing with strikes against the Politburo’s bunker complex, hardened command and control complexes, and—notionally—targets like the dams along the Yangtze. However, Taipei was never particularly interested in causing massive civilian casualties on the mainland and more interested in threatening the Politburo and PLA.
The intelligence failures throughout the Missile Crisis will lead to the overhauling of the United States Intelligence Community with the National Intelligence Community Reform Act of 2032. NICRA will radically remake the USIC into an ‘orbital’ model with five type-organized ‘orbits’ around a central core with a major expansion of blue badging. The core will be the Office of National Intelligence (ex-ODNI) and its four horsemen—the National Advisory Executive (PDB office), the National Operations Executive (direct action office), the National Integration Executive (dedicated cross-USIC integration), and the National Education Executive (dedicated red team office). The five orbits are defense intelligence (DIA), diplomatic intelligence (CIA), domestic intelligence (FIA, ex-National Security Branch of the FBI), space intelligence (NRO, having absorbed NGA), and signals/cryptographic intelligence (NSA). The crisis will also see the 12th Special Forces Group stood up to provide a dedicated global force for NOX Jedburgh teams and Critical Threat Advisory Companies; JSOC’s UDT-13 (prior only an EOD enabler unit) will gain its famed “Boomer Busting” mission.
Regardless, Harris is publicly understood as having blinked, and her approvals tank to Bush ‘08 levels. Senators Todd Young and Katie Britt defeat her and Cooper in the 2032 US Presidential Election, winning the first GOP popular vote win since 2004.
This series will continue next week and cover the Fifth Persian Gulf War of 2034 and the Second Sino-American War of 2037-2040.
"the rebirth of a small number of Underwater Demolition Teams"
LOL.
we go BACK TO THE BEGINNING Vizzini!
I have a few questions. So 1. In the dvtl you mention 9/11 still happens. Like how does that end up happening. 2. Does Florida ever go blue or stays red. 3. Does Taiwan get f/35s after first sino? 4. What’s australia looking like? Do they finally decide to get a proper carrier or? And what happens with aukus 5. Is there any domestic violence stemming from first and second sino from far right/left groups. I know I ask a lot of questions but I am genuinely interested in this universe and the lore surrounding it.